Recap Semanal — 11-17 Mayo 2026
Weekly Recap — May 11-17, 2026
28 picks · 18W-10L · +3.97u · ROI +13.7% · BTTS 5W-0L imparable · J1 League 99% ROI · MLS arrastra con Over/Under
28 picks · 18W-10L · +3.97u · ROI +13.7% · BTTS 5W-0L unbeaten · J1 League 99% ROI · MLS drags Over/Under down
18 MAYO 2026MAY 18, 2026
RECAP SEMANALWEEKLY RECAP
J1 League · Scottish Prem · Ligue 1 · MLS · Allsvenskan
Semana con dos caras. Del 11 al 17 de mayo, AIBG cerró 18 victorias, 10 derrotas y +3.97 unidades de beneficio — un ROI semanal del +13.7% con 64.3% de win rate. El gran protagonista fue el mercado BTTS: 5W-0L, perfecta, con +4.06u y 90% ROI. El J1 League fue la liga del mes con 3W-0L y 99% de ROI. El punto oscuro: el Over/Under 2.5 acumuló 21 picks y acabó prácticamente en tablas (-0.01u), con la MLS lastrando el resultado del sábado. Desglose completo abajo.
Resumen de la Semana
18-10
Victorias — Derrotas
+1.20u
Mejor Pick (Aberdeen BTTS No)
-1.50u
Peor Pick (Seattle O2.5)
El volumen fue similar a la semana anterior (28 vs 33) pero el ROI dio un salto considerable del +3.5% al +13.7%. BTTS fue el motor absoluto: los cinco picks del mercado entraron, con Aberdeen como el más rentable (+1.20u a 2.20). La J1 League entregó 3W-0L impecables. El Over/Under 2.5, con 21 picks, se salvó de milagro gracias a los múltiples picks de miércoles y jueves — el sábado en la MLS fue donde el modelo acumuló pérdidas en picks con stake elevado.
Estado global (577 picks): 317W-257L-3V | Profit acumulado +42.86u | ROI total +6.7% | Racha actual +2 consecutivos
MLS + Premier League
1W-1L
LAFC vs Houston Dynamo — Over 2.5 @ 1.74
WON
+0.74u
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United — Over 2.5 @ 1.78
LOST
-1.00u
Balance del día: -0.26u
Scottish Premiership
1W-0L
Aberdeen FC vs St Mirren FC — BTTS No @ 2.20
WON
+1.20u
Balance del día: +1.20u
J1 League · Super League (GRE) · La Liga · Ligue 1 · MLS
6W-2L
Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy — DC X2 @ 1.91 (J1)
WON
+0.91u
APO Levadiakos vs OFI Crete — Over 2.5 @ 1.67 (GRE)
WON
+0.67u
Espanyol vs Athletic Bilbao — Over 2.5 @ 2.20 (La Liga)
LOST
-1.00u
Stade Brestois vs RC Strasbourg — BTTS Yes @ 1.67 (Ligue 1)
WON
+0.67u
Stade Brestois vs RC Strasbourg — Over 2.5 @ 1.86 (Ligue 1)
WON
+0.86u
Charlotte FC vs NYCFC — Over 2.5 @ 1.75 (MLS)
LOST
-1.00u
Orlando City vs Philadelphia Union — Over 2.5 @ 1.75 (MLS)
WON
+0.75u
NE Revolution vs Nashville SC — Over 2.5 @ 1.85 (MLS)
WON
+0.85u
Balance del día: +2.71u
MLS
2W-0L
FC Dallas vs Vancouver Whitecaps — Over 2.5 @ 1.60
WON
+0.60u
Seattle Sounders vs San Jose Earthquakes — Over 2.5 @ 1.62 (1.5u)
WON
+0.93u
Balance del día: +1.53u
Chinese Super League
1W-0L
Shanghai Port vs Zhejiang FC — Over 2.5 @ 1.53
WON
+0.53u
Balance del día: +0.53u
Scottish Prem · Allsvenskan · Bundesliga · MLS
4W-5L
Falkirk vs Rangers — Over 2.5 @ 1.68 (Scottish Prem)
WON
+0.68u
Falkirk vs Rangers — BTTS Yes @ 1.67 (Scottish Prem)
WON
+0.67u
GAIS vs Degerfors IF — Over 2.5 @ 1.99 (Allsvenskan)
LOST
-1.00u
1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg — DC X2 @ 1.52 (Bundesliga)
LOST
-1.00u
CF Montréal vs Chicago Fire — Over 2.5 @ 1.61 (MLS, 1.5u)
LOST
-1.50u
Orlando City vs Atlanta United — Over 2.5 @ 1.53 (MLS)
LOST
-1.00u
Charlotte FC vs Toronto FC — Over 2.5 @ 1.68 (MLS)
WON
+0.68u
NE Revolution vs Minnesota United — Over 2.5 @ 1.76 (MLS, 1.5u)
WON
+1.14u
Philadelphia Union vs Columbus Crew — Over 2.5 @ 1.81 (MLS)
LOST
-1.00u
Balance del día: -2.33u
MLS · J1 League · Allsvenskan · La Liga
3W-2L
Seattle Sounders vs LA Galaxy — Over 2.5 @ 1.57 (MLS, 1.5u)
LOST
-1.50u
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vissel Kobe — Over 2.5 @ 2.06 (J1)
WON
+1.06u
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vissel Kobe — BTTS Yes @ 2.00 (J1)
WON
+1.00u
Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF — Over 2.5 @ 1.88 (Allsvenskan, 0.5u)
LOST
-0.50u
Osasuna vs RCD Espanyol — BTTS Yes @ 2.05 (La Liga, 0.5u)
WON
+0.52u
Balance del día: +0.58u
Mejor Pick de la Semana
Aberdeen FC vs St Mirren FC — BTTS No
Scottish Premiership · Martes 12 Mayo
Mercado: BTTS No @ 2.20 · Stake 1u · Edge 7.5%
WON
+1.20u
Por qué funcionó
Pick contracorriente en la Scottish Premiership: BTTS No a cuota 2.20 con un edge del 7.5%. El modelo detectó que St Mirren, visitante, tiene un ratio de goles marcados fuera de casa muy bajo y que Aberdeen no está obligada a atacar (zona media de tabla, sin presión de descenso ni playoff). Sin incentivos para buscar gol por ambos lados, la probabilidad de que uno de los dos equipos no marcara era real. El modelo calculó 53% de probabilidad para BTTS No frente al 45.5% implícito en la cuota. Lección: BTTS No con cuotas altas (>2.0) en ligas de volumen bajo como la Scottish Prem ofrece value real cuando la motivación y las tendencias defensivas se alinean.
Peor Pick — La Lección
Seattle Sounders vs LA Galaxy — Over 2.5
MLS · Domingo 17 Mayo
Mercado: Over 2.5 @ 1.57 · Stake 1.5u · Edge 10.3%
LOST
-1.50u
Lección aprendida
El sábado tuvimos el mismo patrón: CF Montréal vs Chicago con stake de 1.5u en Over 2.5 también fue derrota. El modelo tiene edge elevado en ambos (10.1% y 10.3%), pero la cuota de 1.57-1.61 deja muy poco margen para la varianza. Con cuotas por debajo de 1.65, el riesgo/recompensa es asimétrico: ganas poco si aciertas y pierdes mucho en proporción si fallas. Dos fallos a 1.5u en la misma jornada MLS costaron 3u. Lección: stake de 1.5u está justificado cuando el edge supera el 10%, pero solo con cuotas que ofrezcan relación riesgo/recompensa razonable (preferiblemente >1.70). Por debajo de 1.65, mejor reducir stake a 1u.
Comparativa Semana Anterior
| Métrica | Sem. Anterior (4-10 May) | Esta Semana (11-17 May) | Delta |
|---|
| Picks | 33 | 28 | -5 |
| W-L | 19W-14L | 18W-10L | — |
| Win Rate | 57.6% | 64.3% | +6.7pp |
| Profit | +1.19u | +3.97u | +2.78u |
| ROI | +3.5% | +13.7% | +10.2pp |
| Mejor Mercado | BTTS (+2.62u) | BTTS (+4.06u) | BTTS sigue dominando |
| Mejor Liga | Allsvenskan | J1 League (99% ROI) | — |
Perspectiva: El ROI saltó del +3.5% al +13.7% gracias a tres factores: el dominio de BTTS (5W-0L), los picks europeos del miércoles y el buen rendimiento del J1 y la Scottish Prem. El Over/Under 2.5 volvió a ser neutro (-0.01u) — gran volumen, poco filo. El acumulado global alcanza +42.86u y 6.7% ROI en 577 picks.
¿Qué Vigilamos la Próxima Semana?
Con la temporada europea llegando a su fin y las ligas americanas en plena ebullición, tres señales clave a seguir:
1. BTTS — Consolidar el dominador. BTTS lleva dos semanas seguidas sin fallar: 5W-0L esta semana y resultados similares la anterior. El modelo está identificando correctamente partidos con necesidad estructural de gol por ambos lados. La clave es no sobreexponerse: máximo 5-6 picks BTTS por semana, preferiblemente con cuotas por encima de 1.75 para mantener el value.
2. MLS — Revisar umbral de stake. La MLS generó 7W-5L esta semana con resultado prácticamente neutro. Los dos picks de stake 1.5u fueron derrotas. El scanner del sistema está poniendo stake elevado en MLS Over/Under cuando el edge supera el 10%, pero las cuotas bajas (1.57-1.62) no justifican ese riesgo. Ajuste pendiente: cap stake en MLS Over/Under a 1u salvo que la cuota supere 1.75.
3. J1 League y Scottish Prem — Mantener la señal. La J1 League entregó 3W-0L perfectos (Machida y doble Nagasaki) con edge claro por encima del 8%. La Scottish Prem contribuyó con el pick de la semana (Aberdeen BTTS No) y Falkirk doble victoria. Ambas ligas están en la fase final de temporada — momento de alta motivación y, en los equipos de media tabla, patrones de juego más predecibles. El scanner las monitoriza como prioridad.
En el radar: Jornadas finales de J1 League, MLS (mayo activo), últimas rondas de la Scottish Prem y cierres de temporada en ligas europeas. Partidos de motivación extrema (descenso, playoffs) — históricamente el edge del sistema sube en estos contextos.
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A week with two distinct halves. From May 11 to 17, AIBG closed 18 wins, 10 losses and +3.97 units of profit — a weekly ROI of +13.7% and a 64.3% win rate. The standout performer was BTTS: 5W-0L, flawless, with +4.06u at 90% ROI. The J1 League delivered three wins from three picks at a staggering 99% ROI. The drag came from Over/Under 2.5: 21 picks and essentially break-even (-0.01u), with Saturday's MLS session eating into the week's gains. Full breakdown below.
Weekly Summary
+1.20u
Best Pick (Aberdeen BTTS No)
-1.50u
Worst Pick (Seattle O2.5)
Volume was slightly lower than the previous week (28 vs 33) but the ROI jumped sharply from +3.5% to +13.7%. BTTS was the absolute engine: all five picks landed, with Aberdeen the most profitable (+1.20u at 2.20). The J1 League delivered a perfect 3W-0L card. Over/Under 2.5, with 21 picks, barely survived to break even thanks to Wednesday and Thursday's multi-pick sessions — Saturday in MLS is where the model took its heaviest hits, particularly on picks with elevated stake.
Global record (577 picks): 317W-257L-3P | Cumulative profit +42.86u | Total ROI +6.7% | Current streak +2 consecutive
Results by Day
| Day | Picks | W-L | Profit | Highlight |
|---|
| Mon May 11 | 2 | 1W-1L | -0.26u | LAFC O2.5 ✅ · Spurs O2.5 ❌ |
| Tue May 12 | 1 | 1W-0L | +1.20u | Aberdeen BTTS No ✅ (best pick) |
| Wed May 13 | 8 | 6W-2L | +2.71u | Machida DC ✅ · Brest double ✅ · NE Rev ✅ |
| Thu May 14 | 2 | 2W-0L | +1.53u | MLS double win — Dallas ✅ · Seattle ✅ |
| Fri May 15 | 1 | 1W-0L | +0.53u | Shanghai Port O2.5 ✅ |
| Sat May 16 | 9 | 4W-5L | -2.33u | Falkirk double ✅ · MLS 3 losses ❌ |
| Sun May 17 | 5 | 3W-2L | +0.58u | Nagasaki double ✅ · Seattle Galaxy ❌ (worst) |
Best Pick of the Week
Aberdeen FC vs St Mirren FC — BTTS No
Scottish Premiership · Tue May 12
Market: BTTS No @ 2.20 · Stake 1u · Edge 7.5%
WON
+1.20u
Why it worked
A contrarian pick in the Scottish Premiership: BTTS No at 2.20 with a 7.5% edge. The model identified St Mirren's poor away-goal record and the lack of structural attacking incentive for either side — mid-table, no playoff pressure, no relegation fight. Without a strong motive to press forward, the probability of a clean sheet on at least one end was real. The model calculated 53% probability for BTTS No versus the 45.5% implied by the odds. Key takeaway: BTTS No at high odds (>2.00) in lower-volume leagues like the Scottish Prem delivers real value when defensive trends and motivation align.
Worst Pick — The Lesson
Seattle Sounders vs LA Galaxy — Over 2.5
MLS · Sun May 17
Market: Over 2.5 @ 1.57 · Stake 1.5u · Edge 10.3%
LOST
-1.50u
Lesson learned
Saturday showed the same pattern: CF Montréal vs Chicago at 1.5u stake also lost. Both had genuine edge (10.1% and 10.3%), but at odds of 1.57–1.61 the risk/reward is skewed. At odds below 1.65, the asymmetry is punishing: you gain little when right and lose a lot in proportion when wrong. Two 1.5u failures in the same MLS session cost 3u. The rule going forward: 1.5u stake is justified above 10% edge, but only when odds are above 1.70. Below 1.65, drop to 1u — the edge exists but the expected value per unit of risk doesn't justify overweighting.
Week-over-Week Delta
| Metric | Prior Week (May 4-10) | This Week (May 11-17) | Delta |
|---|
| Picks | 33 | 28 | -5 |
| W-L | 19W-14L | 18W-10L | — |
| Win Rate | 57.6% | 64.3% | +6.7pp |
| Profit | +1.19u | +3.97u | +2.78u |
| ROI | +3.5% | +13.7% | +10.2pp |
| Best Market | BTTS (+2.62u) | BTTS (+4.06u) | BTTS back-to-back dominant |
| Best League | Allsvenskan | J1 League (99% ROI) | — |
Perspective: ROI jumped from +3.5% to +13.7%, driven by three factors: BTTS dominance (5W-0L), Wednesday's multi-league European sweep, and strong J1 and Scottish Prem returns. Over/Under 2.5 was effectively neutral (-0.01u) — high volume, low precision. The cumulative record now stands at +42.86u and 6.7% ROI across 577 picks.
What We're Watching Next Week
With European seasons reaching their final weeks and American leagues in full swing, three clear signals stand out:
1. BTTS — Protect the lead. BTTS has now gone unbeaten for two consecutive weeks (10W-0L combined). The model is consistently finding matches where both teams have structural reasons to attack — playoff zones, must-win situations, compromised defensive lines late in the season. The priority: keep the market under 5–6 picks per week and ensure odds are above 1.75 to maintain genuine value.
2. MLS — Tighten the stake rule. MLS delivered 7W-5L this week with a near-neutral result. Both 1.5u picks lost. The scanner is assigning elevated stake when edge exceeds 10% in MLS Over/Under, but short odds (1.57–1.62) don't justify that risk. Adjustment in progress: cap MLS Over/Under stake at 1u unless odds exceed 1.75.
3. J1 League and Scottish Prem — Keep the signal alive. J1 delivered a perfect 3W-0L card (Machida and the Nagasaki double), and the Scottish Prem contributed the pick of the week and a Falkirk double win. Both leagues are entering their final rounds — high motivation across the board, and more predictable tactical patterns from mid-table sides. The 08:30 scanner monitors them as priority targets.
On the radar next week: J1 League final rounds, MLS (May remains active), closing fixtures of the Scottish Prem, and late-season European matches. Relegation six-pointers and playoff finals historically boost the model's edge — high motivation = cleaner signals.
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